United States presidential election in New Mexico, 2004
United States presidential election in New Mexico, 2004
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The 2004 United States presidential election in New Mexico took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 5 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.
New Mexico was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 0.8% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered it as a swing state. The Land of Enchantment is a very diverse state, with 42% of the state Hispanic and another 42% of the electorate Caucasian. Exit polling showed that incumbent George W. Bush performed better among Hispanic Americans in 2004 than in 2000. This may be one of the reasons why Bush won and swung the state from 2000, being one of the only three states who swung between 2000 and 2004. Although, Bush did win with a margin of less than 1% of the vote.
Caucuses
Campaign
Predictions
There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are there last predictions before election day.[1]
- D.C. Political Report: Slight Democratic
- Associated Press: Toss Up
- CNN: Bush
- Cook Political Report: Toss Up
- Newsweek: Toss Up
- New York Times: Toss Up
- Rasmussen Reports: Toss Up
- Research 2000: Lean Kerry
- Washington Post: Battleground
- Washington Times: Battleground
- Zogby International: Kerry
- Washington Dispatch: Bush
Polling
Polls showed Kerry in the lead for most of the general election. However, Bush caught up in the last month. The last 3 polling average showed Bush leading with 48% to 46%, which meant that the undecided voters would decide the election.[2]
Fundraising
Bush raised $869,407.[3] Kerry raised $1,289,134.[4]
Advertising and visits
Because of the closeness of the prior election, New Mexico was largely considered as a swing state. Over the general election, Bush visited the state 5 times and Kerry visited 8 times.[5] Nearly $2 million were spent by both campaigns combined in television advertisements each week.[6]
Analysis
Although Bill Richardson, the Democratic governor, is very popular, the state, who voted for Al Gore by 300 votes in 2000, chose George W. Bush in 2004, by 6,000 votes. The only county Bush won in 2004 that he didn't win in 2000 was Colfax County. Half of the population in this state is hispanic, thus Bush was able to appeal to over 40% of the hispanic vote because of his liberal position on illegal immigration.
Results
Results breakdown
By county
| County |
Kerry% |
Kerry# |
Bush% |
Bush# |
Others% |
Others# |
| Lea |
20.1% |
3,646 |
79.4% |
14,430 |
0.6% |
105 |
| Union |
21.9% |
411 |
77.3% |
1,454 |
0.9% |
16 |
| Curry |
24.8% |
3,541 |
74.5% |
10,649 |
0.7% |
96 |
| Catron |
27.6% |
551 |
71.6% |
1,427 |
0.8% |
15 |
| De Baca |
28.3% |
281 |
71.1% |
706 |
0.6% |
6 |
| Roosevelt |
29.1% |
2,082 |
69.9% |
4,997 |
0.9% |
65 |
| Chaves |
31.0% |
6,726 |
68.1% |
14,773 |
0.9% |
206 |
| Otero |
31.0% |
6,433 |
67.7% |
14,066 |
1.3% |
265 |
| Lincoln |
31.3% |
2,822 |
67.3% |
6,070 |
1.4% |
122 |
| San Juan |
33.0% |
14,843 |
65.6% |
29,525 |
1.4% |
638 |
| Eddy |
33.9% |
6,880 |
65.5% |
13,268 |
0.6% |
122 |
| Quay |
34.5% |
1,422 |
64.6% |
2,661 |
0.8% |
34 |
| Torrance |
36.7% |
2,386 |
61.9% |
4,026 |
1.5% |
95 |
| Sierra |
37.3% |
1,926 |
61.3% |
3,162 |
1.3% |
69 |
| Harding |
40.2% |
259 |
59.0% |
380 |
0.8% |
5 |
| Valencia |
43.3% |
11,270 |
55.6% |
14,474 |
1.0% |
268 |
| Hidalgo |
43.8% |
861 |
55.0% |
1,081 |
1.1% |
22 |
| Luna |
44.0% |
3,340 |
54.8% |
4,164 |
1.2% |
89 |
| Los Alamos |
46.5% |
5,206 |
51.9% |
5,810 |
1.6% |
181 |
| Colfax |
47.3% |
2,824 |
51.6% |
3,082 |
1.0% |
62 |
| Sandoval |
48.1% |
21,421 |
50.8% |
22,628 |
1.1% |
492 |
| Dona Ana |
51.3% |
31,762 |
47.7% |
29,548 |
1.0% |
650 |
| Bernalillo |
51.5% |
132,252 |
47.3% |
121,454 |
1.2% |
3,105 |
| Socorro |
51.3% |
4,025 |
47.1% |
3,696 |
1.7% |
130 |
| Cibola |
52.3% |
3,913 |
46.4% |
3,477 |
1.3% |
97 |
| Grant |
53.0% |
7,095 |
45.8% |
6,135 |
1.2% |
162 |
| Guadalupe |
59.1% |
1,340 |
40.3% |
914 |
0.6% |
13 |
| McKinley |
63.3% |
13,051 |
35.6% |
7,351 |
1.1% |
221 |
| Rio Arriba |
65.0% |
9,753 |
34.3% |
5,149 |
0.6% |
97 |
| Mora |
66.4% |
1,876 |
32.8% |
928 |
0.8% |
22 |
| Santa Fe |
71.1% |
47,074 |
27.9% |
18,466 |
1.0% |
660 |
| San Miguel |
71.7% |
8,683 |
27.3% |
3,313 |
1.0% |
120 |
| Taos |
74.1% |
10,987 |
24.7% |
3,666 |
1.2% |
182 |
By congressional district
Kerry won 2 of 3 congressional districts.[7]
Electors
NM voters cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Iowa has 5 electors because it has 3 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 5 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 5 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia meet in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All were pledged to and voted for Bush/Cheney.[8]
- Rod Adair
- Ruth Kelly
- Rick Lopez
- Lou Melvin
- Rodney Montoya
References
See also